Avalanche C-Chain Magic Block
We use a hierarchical fallback system to predict when block 69420000 will arrive:
This gives priority to recent network conditions while incorporating long-term stability from our EMA smoothing.
We use a hybrid approach for maximum efficiency:
โก WebSocket (primary): Real-time block notifications as they're mined โ instant updates!
๐ข TAIL insertion (RPC fallback): Backup polling when WebSocket is unavailable
๐ต HEAD insertion (Routescan API): Historical blocks working backwards โ builds our long-term context
Target: Build a 1-day buffer of blocks dynamically sized as 86400 / average_block_time
WebSocket gives us instant block notifications (sub-second latency) vs RPC polling every 10-30 seconds. It's like having a direct phone line to the blockchain instead of checking your mailbox!
EMA is like a smart memory that gives more weight to recent data but doesn't forget the past:
Smooth EMA (ฮฑ=0.02-0.15): Follows long-term trends, resists noise
Adaptive EMA (ฮฑ=0.08-0.30): Responds quickly to network changes
Alpha values automatically adapt based on data size - PID-like control!
Every 50 blocks, we recalculate EMA from scratch in chronological order to avoid contamination from mixed data sources. No more elevated values from temporal mixing!
We continuously monitor our data quality:
Gap Detection: Checks for missing blocks in our sequence
Outlier Filtering: Removes intervals < 0.1s or > 10s (likely timestamp errors)
Trimmed Means: Removes top/bottom 10% to handle network hiccups
Avalanche blocks don't come at exactly 2 seconds! They vary from 1-4s based on network load, validator performance, and transaction volume. Our algorithm adapts to these real-world conditions.
Once we have our best block time estimate:
The longer the app runs, the more data we collect, and the more accurate our prediction becomes!
Because it's a nice number! ๐ Plus it gives us a fun way to demonstrate real-time blockchain analytics and prediction algorithms.